New Moon and Sabbath 1/9/37/120

Dear Friends,

Things are moving on in the Ukraine.  Forces are building up and many observers are now writing on the subject. Michael Kofman a scholar with the Woodrow Wilson Center's Kennan Institute has expressed his concern also on the buildup. His views were published on CNN recently.

His view was that “The buildup of separatist forces in Donetsk, Ukraine, and Moscow's patently confrontational tone are raising the specter of another offensive in eastern Ukraine before winter grips the region.”  Also it was noted that last Wednesday week NATO warned that "columns of Russian equipment, primarily Russian tanks, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops" had been spotted entering Ukraine.

Given the strategic costs, it might seem unlikely that Russia would reignite this war, especially with winter looming. Yet both the opportunity and the motivation appear to be there in Moscow. The recent G20 in Brisbane saw the world leaders rebuke Vladimir Putin and threaten more sanctions.  Chancellor Merkel stated that Germany would not allow Russia to undermine the peace of Europe.

Kofman was of the view that “the invasion of Ukraine and confrontation with the West have whipped up nationalist sentiment, but Russia has run out of foreign policy victories to feed to the fire. That might explain why Moscow is aggravating NATO with airspace violations and playing alleged underwater games with Sweden, moves that appear aimed at keeping the Russian public in a confrontational mood.” 

Russia is maintaining support for Putin with blatantly distorted propaganda as the Media is biased and far from objective. None of this propaganda is likely to sustain his astronomical approval ratings or keep economic woes from chipping away at public support for the Ukrainian adventure. The problem is that as his approval slips he may well push to armed conflict.

Kofman was also of the view that: “another motivating factor could be that pro-Russian separatists simply do not control enough of the Donbass, the populous region that includes Donetsk, to have made this conflict worthwhile for Russia. The territory controlled by them looks awfully small in comparison to lofty talk of re-establishing a grand Novorossiya, and the ceasefire line of control left many separatist home cities under Ukrainian control, so the separatists seem keen to fight for the rest.”
in Ukraine
What we are left with is an interim solution where the current line of control looks more like a stopping point than the desirable outlines of a frozen conflict for Russia. The view is then that to support Moscow's policy aims, the smarter approach would be to keep Ukraine in a permanent state of crisis and use this foothold to maintain pressure on Kiev. 

There appears to be serious domestic political considerations involved and the militarily advantageous position of pro-Russian separatists are themselves seen as compelling arguments for a surprise winter offensive.  An early winter offensive and then a dug in force will see NATO and Ukraine facing serious limitations in an attack to recover the position.

Kofman also points out that “the separatist force now numbers anywhere between 20,000 and 25,000, half of whom are likely locals, with the other half composed of Russian volunteers and fighting groups from the North Caucasus, particularly Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Chechnya. Many of the fighters from the Caucasus will go home for the winter if there is nothing for them to do in Ukraine. This suggests that the ideal time to use them in a bid to gain more territory is now, rather than trying to regroup these fighters next year for another season of conflict.”  This view has much to merit it.
It is reported that Russia, for its part, used the ceasefire to drastically increase the separatist stores of equipment and ammunition. NATO and Ukraine have both reported that convoys arrive regularly bringing munitions.

Also according to reports a good deal of captured Ukrainian armour is being restored by the separatists themselves inside repair facilities they control. 

On the alternative Ukraine's army is in a period of consolidation and has lost a large portion of its best equipment which may be as much as 60% according to President Petro Poroshenko.  The defence ministry is in trouble and Ukraine has fired its third defence minister.

The main motivated force of the Ukraine is comprised of Volunteer battalions.  They are in a period of reorganization. Also, since the signing of the ceasefire, Ukraine has lost many of its best soldiers in the conflict at Donetsk airport. 

Thus the conditions are right for Russia and the Ukraine is weakened and consolidating.

There is, however, a lack of public support for Russian casualties in Ukraine.

Thus any attack must be swift, well planned, and brief with a decisive outcome. There must be few losses in order for it to be tolerable at home in order to not destabilise Putin.

Putin needs the separatists to be sufficiently armed, trained and supported that they can seize territory without the need for Russian regulars. If that happens there is much less for Moscow to risk politically. 

The critical problems for Russia are the sanctions and the effects on its economy which now after the G20 will be increased. The Russian Central bank cannot contain inflation there now. The major world factor is the increase in oil production and the consequent loss of revenue for Russia over oil production. So also is it with Iran and Syria and Libya and they are thus affected and may well try to induce the war against Israel to stop the concentration on Iraq and Syria. The Palestinians are trying to provoke that war at present especially by killing rabbis in synagogues. Iran may well enter Iraq now to support the Shia and the Kurds and move on into Syria.  This conflict may expand also if it is combined with the attack on the Ukraine.

The Russian government faced with the inflation problem with the Central Bank has to find a way to roll over billions in corporate debt for companies that no longer have access to the Western financial system due to sanctions which are now to increase from the G20 conference.

It is without doubt that military intervention by Moscow, given that they are faced with further Western sanctions, may be indifferent to further Western sanctions on sectors of the Russian economy, meaning Putin will likely lose any hope of driving a wedge between Europeans to reverse the current sanctions in place and in fact may have already come to that realisation. 

Russia does not see sanctions as the source of Russia's economic woes, but more a humiliating annoyance. They are more likely to move in the winter under the comparative advantage of the ability to use gas cut-offs against EU to reduce sanctions.

The reliance of Russia would be on Ukraine's energy dependence and broken economy, along with what they see as relatively weak Western promises of financial aid, suggests to them that Kiev would have to sue for peace no matter what Moscow does. Russia seems to regard NATO resolve with some degree of contempt and may well force the conflict to use the Winter advantage.

Russia does not see gain from maintaining the peace.  Peace will not raise the price of oil or stop speculation on the ruble. While the United States does not appear keen to start rolling back sanctions, even though it genuinely needs Russian cooperation on Iran, Syria, and ISIS in the Middle East. There may be no rolling back.  Republicans have regained control of the U.S. Senate and so Russia knows there is little it can do practically to lift the sanctions anyway.

Kofman considers that “Illegitimate elections in the separatist regions and the massing of Russian forces only reinforce the impression that Moscow has no interest in implementing the Minsk agreement or in reconciliation with the West. And while it is true that a renewed quest to widen separatist-held territory would be a reckless adventure, fraught with costs for everyone involved, reckless foreign policy risk seems to be the new normal in Russia. Now a winter offensive is far from unthinkable.” 

Indeed it is not only far from unthinkable it comes more likely with each passing day.

NATO is now back in the Middle East.  Iraq is at war and destroying its own populace.  Shia and Sunni will wipe each other out after they have eliminated the minorities.

King Hussein of Jordan is keeping an iron grip on these terrorists and has long said that if they operate in Jordan he will kill the terrorists and their male relatives and then wipe out their villages and so with such clear policies he will escape out of the hands of the King of the North as prophecy says will happen.

Once NATO is in the Middle East with the movements of Iran and the IS also against the Saudi Arabians and the insurgency there, the Ukrainian situation will be developed to take advantage of the crisis and then the Wars of the Fifth and the Sixth Trumpets will commence in earnest. Iran will not escape.

One third of mankind will be destroyed. For this to happen the demons will need to escalate this religious conflict around the world. 

For example, they will push for the introduction of halal (clean by Islamic
standards) food, thereby securing food preparation jobs for Muslims. They
will increase pressure on supermarket chains to feature halal on their shelves --
along with threats for failure to comply. They identify biblically unclean fish as halal and thus interfere with the Bible food laws even in the lower Muslim populated countries above.

This is occurring in:
France -- Muslim 8% 
Philippines -- 5% 
Sweden -- Muslim 5% 
Switzerland -- Muslim 4.3% 
The Netherlands -- Muslim 5.5% 
Trinidad & Tobago -- Muslim 5.8%

At this point, they will work to get the ruling government to allow them to rule
themselves (within their ghettos) under Sharia, the Islamic Law. They have done this in Sweden already. The ultimate goal of Islamists is to establish Sharia law over the entire world.

When Muslims approach 10% of the population, they tend to increase lawlessness
as a means of complaint about their conditions. In Paris, we are already seeing
car-burnings. Any non-Muslim action offends Islam, and results in uprisings and
threats, such as in Amsterdam , with opposition to Mohammed cartoons and films
about Islam. Such tensions are seen daily, particularly in Muslim sections, in:
Guyana -- Muslim 10% 
India -- Muslim 13.4% 
Israel -- Muslim 16% 
Kenya -- Muslim 10% 
Russia -- Muslim 15%

After reaching 20%, nations can expect hair-trigger rioting, jihad militia formations,
sporadic killings, and the burnings of Christian churches and Jewish synagogues,
such as in:
Ethiopia -- Muslim 32.8%

At 40%, nations experience widespread massacres, chronic terror attacks,
and ongoing militia warfare, such as in:
Bosnia -- Muslim 40% 
Chad -- Muslim 53.1% 
Lebanon -- Muslim 59.7%

From 60%, nations experience unfettered persecution of non-believers of all other
religions (including non-conforming Muslims), sporadic ethnic cleansing (genocide),
use of Sharia Law as a weapon, and Jizya, the tax placed on infidels, such as in:
Albania -- Muslim 70% 
Malaysia -- Muslim 60.4% 
Qatar -- Muslim 77.5% 
Sudan -- Muslim 70%

After 80%, expect daily intimidation and violent jihad, some State-run ethnic cleansing,
and even some genocide, as these nations drive out the infidels, and move toward 100%
Muslim, such as has been experienced and in some ways is on-going in:
Bangladesh -- Muslim 83% 
Egypt -- Muslim 90% 
Gaza -- Muslim 98.7% 
Indonesia -- Muslim 86.1% 
Iran -- Muslim 98% 
Iraq -- Muslim 97% 
Jordan -- Muslim 92% 
Morocco -- Muslim 98.7% 
Pakistan -- Muslim 97% 
Palestine -- Muslim 99% 
Syria -- Muslim 90% 
Tajikistan -- Muslim 90% 
Turkey -- Muslim 99.8% 
United Arab Emirates -- Muslim 96%

100% will allegedly usher in the peace of 'Dar-es-Salaam' -- the Islamic House of Peace..
Here there's supposed to be peace, because everybody is a Muslim, the Madrasses
are the only schools, and the Koran is the only word, such as in:
Afghanistan -- Muslim 100% 
Saudi Arabia -- Muslim 100% 
Somalia -- Muslim 100% 
Yemen -- Muslim 100%

Unfortunately, peace is never achieved, as in these 100% states the most radical
Muslims intimidate and spew hatred, and satisfy their blood lust by killing less
radical Muslims, for a variety of reasons.

'Before I was nine I had learned the basic canon of Arab life. It was me against
my brother; me and my brother against our father; my family against my cousins
and the clan; the clan against the tribe; the tribe against the world, and all of
us against the infidel. -- Leon Uris, 'The Haj'

It is important to understand that in some countries, with well under 100% Muslim
populations, such as France, the minority Muslim populations live in ghettos, within
which they are 100% Muslim, and within which they live by Sharia Law.
The national police do not even enter these ghettos. There are no national courts,
nor schools, nor non-Muslim religious facilities. In such situations, Muslims do not
integrate into the community at large. The children attend madrasses. They learn
only the Koran. To even associate with an infidel is a crime punishable with death.
Therefore, in some areas of certain nations, Muslim Imams and extremists exercise
more power than the national average would indicate.

Today's 1.5 billion Muslims make up 22% of the world's population.
But their birth rates dwarf the birth rates of Christians, Hindus, Buddhists,
Jews, and all other believers.

Muslims will exceed 50% of the world's population by the end of this century.

Adapted from Dr. Peter Hammond's book: Slavery, Terrorism and Islam:
The Historical Roots and Contemporary Threat

As the war escalated in Iraq and Syria it is planned to expand into Saudi Arabia and destabilise it and remove the Saud dynasty and radicalise the Sunni groups and take over the Eastern Shia in the oil rich provinces.  The Saudis initially funded the IS groups as did Qatar and other Sunni groups.  Egypt and Libyan extremists are pledging allegiance to the IS state and radicals are moving to assist them.

The war and the conflicts around the world will be brutalised.  At present Egypt and Indonesia being the most populous and the most stable of the Islamic communities are handling the terrorist views but moves will be made to escalate the conflict and Egypt and Indonesia will be increasingly forced to stamp on its terrorists as will Libya and Ethiopia. 

The more successful the radicalisation and the more powerful it becomes the more the NATO forces will be forced to suppress them until firstly chemical war and then nuclear war is inevitable.  Pakistan will prove a catalyst in this nuclear holocaust as will other Sunni states such as Saudi Arabia and the advancing terrorism of IS.

Countries will commence to confine Muslim communities to concentration camps and remove their capacity to agitate and take these steps.  Their capacity to form ghettos will be removed and then the brutalisation of the warfare system and the removal of the Geneva Convention will see literally million of  combatants and innocent civilians, men, women and children slaughtered. 

The brutalisation will also see Russia side with the Muslims in the first instance on the side of Iran and Syria and Shiite Islam but that will simply result in war with Russia and the death of so many Russians that the Old Kremlin mentality visible under Putin will be eliminated by the Russians themselves and then they will side with NATO against the escalating violence of the terrorists.

The invasion of Europe will at first be assisted by the Terrorists in the Ghettos of London and Paris and in all of Europe. Suppressing IS will not stop the extremist mentality in modern day Islam. It is not Koranic Islam and never has been.

Rome will be attacked and the Vatican destroyed. A Russian invasion of Europe will be the subject of another message.

The values of the Christian civilisation of Europe are being lost as the Communists take control of an atheist system and moral relativism that will result in brutalisation of their systems.  Europe and the West is being broken down into an Atheist society that has no understanding that their moral relativism is totally unequipped to deal with religious barbarism and their societies will be broken down and then brutalised and as a result more and more weapons of mass destruction will be used.  This escalation will be very rapid.

The war will be completed and 2.3 billion people will be dead.  Following that the plagues of the earth will destroy another 25% of the earth or 1.5 billion.

At the end of the major conflict of the Sixth Trumpet NATO will return to occupy GAZA and Jerusalem for 42 months during which period we will see the Witnesses and then the Messiah at the end of it.

Read: The War of Hamon-Gog (No. 294);  The Wars of the Last Days and the Vials of the Wrath of God (No. 141B); World War III: Part I The Empire of the Beast (No. 299A); WWIII Part II: The Whore and the Beast (No. 299B); The Witnesses (Including the Two Witnesses) (No. 135).

Wade Cox
Coordinator General