Sabbath Message 28/9/36/120

Dear Friends

The results from the conference with Iran are being hailed as of great effect. US President Barack Obama stated: "For the first time in a decade we have halted the progress on Iran's nuclear programme."

He has defended a deal between Iran and world powers on Tehran's nuclear programme.

He acknowledged that obstacles remained but said "tough talk and bluster" did not guarantee US security.

The six-month interim deal struck in Geneva last Sunday saw Iran agree to curb some of its nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief.

The accord has been generally welcomed but Israel's prime minister called it "a[n] historic mistake".  Saudi Arabia to date has been far from happy.

Some US senators also criticised the deal as too soft on Iran and have threatened to press for fresh sanctions.

To cheers, the President told the crowd that "tough sanctions had led to a deal that for the first time in a decade would roll back key parts of Iran's nuclear programme."

The West has long suspected and also stated Iran's uranium enrichment programme is geared towards making a weapon, but Tehran insists it only wants nuclear energy.

A raft of sanctions has been imposed on Tehran by the UN, US and European Union.

"Huge challenges remain, but we cannot close the door on diplomacy, and we cannot rule out peaceful solutions to the world's problems," Mr Obama said during an event in San Francisco.

"We cannot commit ourselves to an endless cycle of violence, and tough talk and bluster may be the easy thing to do politically, but it's not the right thing for our security."

Earlier, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that an Israeli team led by national security adviser Yossi Cohen would travel to Washington for talks on the deal.

"This accord must bring about one outcome: the dismantling of Iran's military nuclear capability," he said.  Therein lies the problem.  Will it achieve that aim?

Mr. Netanyahu has warned that Israel "will not allow a regime that calls for the destruction of Israel to obtain the means to achieve this goal".

Israel has not ruled out taking military action to stop Iran developing the capability of a nuclear bomb.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius says some EU sanctions on Iran could be lifted as early as next month.

Saudi Arabia - Iran's regional rival - cautiously welcomed the deal on Monday so it has been reported.

"This agreement could be a first step towards a comprehensive solution for Iran's nuclear programme, if there are good intentions," a statement said.

UK Foreign Secretary William Hague also welcomed the Geneva accord, but said it was only a "first step".

"We are right to test to the full Iran's readiness to act in good faith," he told the House of Commons on Monday.

The US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany took part in the talks with Iran, hosted by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

Under the deal which will last six months, Iran would receive some $7bn (£4.3bn) in "limited, temporary, targeted, and reversible [sanctions] relief" while a permanent agreement is sought.
In return, Tehran has agreed to a series of measures.

The Key points of the deal include:

• Iran will stop enriching uranium beyond 5% and "neutralise" its stockpile of uranium enriched beyond this point
• Iran will give greater access to inspectors including daily access at Natanz and Fordo - two of Iran's key nuclear sites
• There will be no further development of the Arak plant which it is believed could produce plutonium
• In return, there will be no new nuclear-related sanctions for six months if Iran sticks by the accord
• Some sanctions will be suspended on trading in gold and precious metals, on Iran's car-making sector and its petrochemical exports.
• Frozen oil sale assets will be transferred in instalments, bringing in some $4.2bn (£2.6bn) of extra revenue

Blinken stated: "This is the first time in a decade we've stopped the advance" of Iran's nuclear programme.  However that is a matter open to serious debate.  Iran has shown repeatedly that it will pursue its nuclear armaments program underground without reference and in spite of sanctions.

Iran's negotiators were welcomed at Tehran's Mehrabad airport by hundreds of cheering supporters carrying flowers and flags. Their internal politics detail their aims and objectives.

The agreement with Iran - the world's fourth-largest oil producer - prompted a fall in oil prices in early Asian trading with Brent crude falling by more than 2%. Although Iran will not be allowed to increase its oil sales for six months, analysts say the deal is perceived by the markets as reducing risk in the Middle East. The markets are reacting as expected and Iran will use that flexibility to its own ends as soon as it is able to do so.

In a nationwide broadcast on Sunday, President Hassan Rouhani repeated that his country would never seek nuclear weapons. Mr Rouhani - regarded as a relative moderate - took office in August replacing the hardline Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

The deal has also been backed by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say in nuclear matters.  To refer to Ayatollah Khamenei as a moderate is a joke.

So do we believe them?  Israel does not believe them and the Saudis do not believe them but have not said so in so many words.  In fact Israel believes it is a serious error.

Why do they believe that?  Because the Bible is very clear what is to happen in the Middle East in the last days. The details are listed in the paper The War of Hamon-Gog (No. 294). The development of this folly has been facilitated by the Northern powers including Russia and China and they will all pay the price for it.

The conflict will escalate once they declare peace. At least Israel is reading the prophecies, if no one else is.  In fact Israel is downloading more CCG papers per capita than any nation on earth.  For such a small population it ranks in the top ten of our stats for hits with such small numbers.  The maxim for them is: If you want peace prepare for war.

The key sanctions against Iran are as follows.

The aim of Iran's more moderate diplomacy is to ease these restrictions to further develop its capacities. It is actually possible that it is preparing for war.

We are then faced with the problem of Syria following on from this accord.  Syrian peace talks planned for January are the "best opportunity" to form a transitional government, US Secretary of State John Kerry has said. He was speaking shortly after UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon announced that Syria's government and opposition would meet on 22 January in Geneva.

The UN, US and Russia have been trying for months to get both sides to agree to a political solution to the conflict. However, there have been disputes over who should attend the talks in Switzerland. The Syrian opposition is divided over which groups should represent it in Geneva. But the opposition insists President Bashar al-Assad must resign. It is possible that the opposition will not attend and a sham agreement may well be pushed through.

James Reynolds of BBC News Geneva has stated in his report of last week that: "A credible peace conference needs at least four basic elements: a time, a place, a guest list, and a mutually-agreed goal. The UN has now organised the first two elements: the conference will be held on 22 January in this city. But that's the easy part. Working out the rest is much more complicated.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon promises that the Syrian government and the opposition will both come - with the aim of setting up a transitional governing body. But the Syrian government may have little wish to discuss giving up or sharing power while it continues to make military advances inside the country.

And it's not yet clear which elements of the fractured Syrian opposition will choose to attend the conference. Those who come may have little influence over those who stay away.

Lakhdar Brahimi, the UN-Arab League envoy to Syria, has asked the government and the opposition to name their respective delegations by the end of the year. He's warned that the opposition delegation needs to be "credible and as representative as possible". Mr Brahimi also says Iran and Saudi Arabia are "certainly among the possible participants".

At least everyone knows where and when to go.

The government in Damascus says there must be no pre-conditions to any peace talks.

More than 100,000 people have been killed and millions have fled Syria since the unrest against Mr Assad began in 2011, according to UN estimates.

On Monday, Mr Kerry said in a statement that the Geneva talks could help end the Syrian conflict.
But he warned: 'We are well aware that the obstacles on the road to a political solution are many, and we will enter the Geneva conference on Syria with our eyes wide open.'

Mr Kerry added that Washington would 'continue to work in concert with the UN and our partners on remaining issues, including which countries will be invited to attend and what the agenda will be'.

Earlier on Monday, Mr Ban confirmed that Syria's government and opposition would for the first time attend the peace talks on 22 January.

'The Geneva conference is the vehicle for a peaceful transition that fulfils the legitimate aspirations of all the Syrian people for freedom and dignity,' he said.

Mr Ban expected representatives of both sides to come 'with a clear understanding' that the goal of the talks was the full implementation of the Geneva Communique, issued after a meeting of the UN-backed Action Group for Syria in the Swiss city in June 2012.

UN officials welcomed news of the talks and urged Syrians to 'seize this opportunity'.

It calls for an immediate cessation of violence and the formation 'on the basis of mutual consent' of a transitional government with full executive powers, including over military and security forces, that could include officials serving under Mr Assad and members of the opposition.

Mr. Ban also warned all parties that they should also come to Geneva 'with a serious intention to end a war that has already left well over 100,000 dead, driven almost nine million from their homes, left countless missing and detained'.

Ban said that: "The conflict in Syria has raged for too long. It would be unforgivable not to seize this opportunity to bring an end to the suffering and destruction it has caused."

It was not clear from the statement if Iran would be invited to Geneva, but Mr. Ban said he expected "all regional and international partners to demonstrate their meaningful support for constructive negotiations". These problems and the involvement of Iran are expected to continue to develop and the hopes that the UN will resolve the issues are not supported by the biblical prophecies.

The National Coalition has agreed to attend if a number of conditions are met. A spokesman for the Supreme Military Council of the Free Syrian Army, Luay Mekdad, told the BBC that the international community had not as yet created the right atmosphere for the Geneva talks to go ahead according to a number of BBC reports.

Relief agencies would have to be given access to besieged areas and all detainees, particularly women and children, had to be freed, it said. The coalition's leader, Ahmed Jarba, also stressed that the president would "have no role in the transitional period". This has been a condition of theirs for some time.

The government has said it will "in principle" attend the conference. However, it has also said it will not negotiate with "terrorists", which it uses to describe almost all those who oppose it. It has also insisted repeatedly that any political solution will not involve Mr Assad's departure.

The BBC's Jim Muir in Beirut says Mr Assad is feeling in a stronger position than he has for a long time and shows no intention of giving up.  Thus the impasse seems set to develop.

In the past month, several towns around Damascus and the second city of Aleppo have been recaptured by soldiers reportedly backed by pro-government militiamen, members of the Lebanese Shia Islamist movement Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guards. On Monday, there were reports of heavy casualties on both sides from clashes between government forces and rebels outside Damascus. The conflict seems set to escalate. Why would Iran genuinely agree to abandon nuclear weapons when the conflict around it is so obviously set to escalate and its soldiers are committed to operations in Syria? Who is able to deal with it and "who will hang the bell on the cat's neck?"

Let us see what is to occur from the New Moon of the Tenth Month called Tebeth.

Wade Cox
Coordinator General