Sabbath 7/9/36/120

Dear Friends

The Middle East is moving inexorably on in the development of a nuclear capacity to counter the Iranian threat.  Saudi Arabia has recently turned down a seat on the Security Council in frustration over the failure of Russia and China on the one hand and the US and EU on the other to deal with the crisis in Syria.  What is not understood is that Saudi Arabia is now using its wealth to provide assistance to nations working with it and likely to come under sanctions by the US or World Bank.  Recent News reports show there is a serious build up in nuclear capacities among the Islamic world and also a serious conventional military build up in Indonesia and Malaysia using Australian Aid packages to offset its defence expenditure since at least 2011. These nations are preparing for war.  The BBC has recently reported matters in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and we will look at that problem first.

Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of sources have told BBC Newsnight which has been published on 7 November 2013.

Initially concerned about containing the threat posed by Iran's atomic programme, it is now possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more quickly than the Islamic republic.

Earlier this year, a senior NATO decision maker told BBC's Mark Urban that he had seen intelligence reporting that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting ready for delivery in Pakistan.

It has been reported that last month Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told a conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, "the Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring."

Mark Urban reports that: Since 2009, when King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia warned visiting US special envoy to the Middle East Dennis Ross that if Iran crossed the threshold, "we will get nuclear weapons", the Kingdom has sent the Americans numerous signals of its intentions.

Gary Samore, until March 2013 President Barack Obama's counter-proliferation adviser on WMD, has told Newsnight: "I do think that the Saudis believe that they have some understanding with Pakistan that, in extremis, they would have claim to acquire nuclear weapons from Pakistan."

Mark Urban says: "The story of Saudi Arabia's project - including the acquisition of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads over long ranges - goes back decades. In the late 1980s they secretly bought dozens of CSS-2 ballistic missiles from China. These rockets, considered by many experts too inaccurate for use as conventional weapons, were deployed 20 years ago. This summer experts at defence publishers Jane's reported the completion of a new Saudi CSS-2 base with missile launch rails aligned with Israel and Iran." 

These details have not gone unnoticed by Israel or Iran and by the entire intelligence community.

For many years Saudi Arabia has given generous financial assistance to Pakistan's defence sector, including, western experts allege, to its missile and nuclear labs. Visits by the then Saudi defence minister Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz al Saud to the Pakistani nuclear research centre in 1999 and 2002 underlined the closeness of the defence relationship.

Defence publisher Jane's revealed the existence of Saudi Arabia's third and undisclosed intermediate-range ballistic missile site, approximately 200 km southwest of Riyadh.

In its quest for a strategic deterrent against India, Pakistan co-operated closely with China which sold them missiles and provided the design for a nuclear warhead. The Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan was accused by western intelligence agencies of selling atomic know-how and uranium enrichment centrifuges to Libya and North Korea. AQ Khan is also believed to have passed the Chinese nuclear weapon design to those countries. This blueprint was for a device engineered to fit on the CSS-2 missile, i.e. the same type sold to Saudi Arabia. Because of this circumstantial evidence, allegations of a Saudi-Pakistani nuclear deal started to circulate even in the 1990s, but were denied by Saudi officials. The officials noted that their country had signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and called for a nuclear-free Middle East, pointing to Israel's possession of such weapons.

The fact that handing over atom bombs to a foreign government could create huge political difficulties for Pakistan, not least with the World Bank and other donors, added to scepticism about those early claims. However, Simon Henderson Director of Global Gulf and Energy Policy Program, Washington Institute says that "The Saudis speak about Iran and nuclear matters very seriously. They don't bluff on this issue"

The Saudi assistance to Pakistan has allowed the Pakistani nuclear program to continue. In Eating the Grass, his semi-official history of the Pakistani nuclear program, Major General Feroz Hassan Khan wrote that Prince Sultan's visits to Pakistan's atomic labs were not proof of an agreement between the two countries. But he acknowledged, "Saudi Arabia provided generous financial support to Pakistan that enabled the nuclear program to continue."

It is now widely understood that whatever undertakings existed between the two countries in the 1990s, it was around 2003 that the Kingdom started serious strategic thinking about its changing security environment and the prospect of nuclear proliferation. A paper leaked that year by senior Saudi officials mapped out three possible responses - to acquire their own nuclear weapons, to enter into an arrangement with another nuclear power to protect the Kingdom, or to rely on the establishment of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East. One could be excused for not believing in a nuclear free zone in the Middle East given the massive nuclear arsenal already in Israel and the biochemical weapons in Syria and Iran and the nuclear programs of Iran.

It was around the same time, following the US invasion of Iraq, that serious strains in the US/Saudi relationship began to show themselves, says Gary Samore.

Mark Urban states: The Saudis resented the removal of Saddam Hussein, had long been unhappy about US policy on Israel, and were growing increasingly concerned about the Iranian nuclear program. In the years that followed, intelligence concerning Saudi-Pakistani nuclear cooperation began to increase. In 2007, the US mission in Riyadh noted they were being asked questions by Pakistani diplomats about US knowledge of "Saudi-Pakistani nuclear cooperation".

The unnamed Pakistanis opined that "it is logical for the Saudis to step in as the physical 'protector'" of the Arab world by seeking nuclear weapons, according to one of the State Department cables posted by Wikileaks. Their great financial wealth enables them to provide such buffers.

By the end of that decade Saudi princes and officials were giving explicit warnings of their intention to acquire nuclear weapons if Iran did. So we have had four years explicit warning of their intentions. Yet the West's dealings with Iran are less than effective.  So having warned the Americans in private for years, last year Saudi officials in Riyadh escalated it to a public warning, telling a journalist from the Times "it would be completely unacceptable to have Iran with a nuclear capability and not the kingdom". This warning has been re-reported by the BBC.

Mark Urban says: "But were these statements bluster, aimed at forcing a stronger US line on Iran, or were they evidence of a deliberate, long-term plan for a Saudi bomb? Both, is the answer I have received from former key officials. One senior Pakistani, speaking on background terms, confirmed the broad nature of the deal - probably unwritten - his country had reached with the kingdom and asked rhetorically 'what did we think the Saudis were giving us all that money for? It wasn't charity.'

Another, a one-time intelligence officer from the same country, said he believed 'the Pakistanis certainly maintain a certain number of warheads on the basis that if the Saudis were to ask for them at any given time they would immediately be transferred.'"

Simon Henderson, Director of the Global Gulf and Energy Policy Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, reportedly told BBC Newsnight "the Saudis speak about Iran and nuclear matters very seriously. They don't bluff on this issue."

Mark Urban says: "Talking to many serving and former officials about this over the past few months, the only real debate I have found is about how exactly the Saudi Arabians would redeem the bargain with Pakistan. Some think it is a cash-and-carry deal for warheads, the first of those options sketched out by the Saudis back in 2003; others that it is the second, an arrangement under which Pakistani nuclear forces could be deployed in the kingdom." Either way it is a serious position and one of conflict with Iran.

Gary Samore, considering these questions at the centre of the US intelligence and policy web, at the White House until earlier this year, thinks that what he calls, "the Nato model", is more likely. However he says:"I think just giving Saudi Arabia a handful of nuclear weapons would be a very provocative action".

He adds: "I've always thought it was much more likely - the most likely option if Pakistan were to honour any agreement would be for be for Pakistan to send its own forces, its own troops armed with nuclear weapons and with delivery systems to be deployed in Saudi Arabia".

This would give a big political advantage to Pakistan since it would allow them to deny that they had simply handed over the weapons, but implies a dual key system in which they would need to agree in order for 'Saudi Arabian' "nukes" to be launched.

Mark Urban says that others he has spoken to think this is not credible, since Saudi Arabia, which regards itself as the leader of the broader Sunni Islamic 'ummah' or community, would want complete control of its nuclear deterrent, particularly at this time of worsening sectarian confrontation with Shia Iran and this is more likely especially with the deteriorating situation in Syria and in Iraq.  Egypt also poses further problems as we know.  

Israeli intelligence holds that Saudi Arabia is now ready to take delivery of finished warheads for its long-range missiles that concurs and strengthens some recent US and NATO intelligence reporting. Israel of course shares Saudi Arabia's motive in wanting to worry the US into containing Iran. Especially given the Egyptian statements in 2013 that they were working towards the genocide of Israel. 

Mark Urban states that Amos Yadlin declined to be interviewed for the BBC Newsnight report, but told him by email that "unlike other potential regional threats, the Saudi one is very credible and imminent."

Mark Urban thinks that even if this view is accurate there are many good reasons for Saudi Arabia to leave its nuclear warheads in Pakistan for the time being. He considers that:
"Doing so allows the kingdom to deny there are any on its soil. It avoids challenging Iran to cross the nuclear threshold in response, and it insulates Pakistan from the international opprobrium of being seen to operate an atomic cash-and-carry."

On a more realistic level he considers that these assumptions though may not be safe for much longer. He rightly said that: "The US diplomatic thaw with Iran has touched deep insecurities in Riyadh, which fears that any deal to constrain the Islamic republic's nuclear program would be ineffective."

It has been reported that earlier this month the Saudi intelligence chief and former ambassador to Washington Prince Bandar announced that the kingdom would be distancing itself more from the US.
The bombshell is that while Mark was investigating this, he heard rumours on the diplomatic grapevine, that Pakistan has recently actually delivered Shaheen mobile ballistic missiles to Saudi Arabia, minus warheads. He says: "These reports, still unconfirmed, would suggest an ability to deploy nuclear weapons in the kingdom, and mount them on an effective, modern, missile system more quickly than some analysts had previously imagined."

In Egypt, Saudi Arabia showed itself ready to step in with large-scale backing following the military overthrow of President Mohammed Morsi's government. There is a message here for Pakistan, of Riyadh being ready to replace US military assistance or World Bank loans, if standing with Saudi Arabia causes a country to lose them.

Newsnight reports that it contacted both the Pakistani and Saudi governments. The Pakistan Foreign Ministry has described our story as "speculative, mischievous and baseless".  We do not think so at all.

The Pakistanis reportedly added: "Pakistan is a responsible nuclear weapon state with robust command and control structures and comprehensive export controls."

The Saudi embassy in London has also issued a statement pointing out that the Kingdom is a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and has worked for a nuclear free Middle East. But it also points out that the UN's "failure to make the Middle East a nuclear free zone is one of the reasons the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia rejected the offer of a seat on the UN Security Council". It says the Saudi Foreign Minister has stressed that this lack of international action "has put the region under the threat of a time bomb that cannot easily be defused by manoeuvring around it".

This timely report by the BBC's Mark Urban and these other experts' reports add to the growing concerns of Israel and the West. Benjamin Netanyahu stated to the UN what we all know to be true and that is that we are now living in the last days foretold by the prophets and that outcome has been declared. As Christ said Scripture cannot be broken (Jn 10:34-36).

Confirming that scenario and compounding the problem in Asia and the Pacific we see increasing problems between China and Japan and the South Koreans are drawing back from Japan and being feted by the Chinese. Tensions are rising there especially with the actions of North Korea.

These are interesting developments in SE Asia. Under Labor (ALP), Australian Aid to Indonesia in 2013-14 was to be increased by $105 million to $646 million, for school and health programs. In June-July Indonesia bought 3 new British built Ragam Class navy corvettes for $190 million - and a prestigious Spanish built 110 metre long three masted tall ship, for training naval cadets, for $70 million.

Over the period 2010-2013 Australia has provided some $ 2billion to Indonesia. The US has provided much more. Since April 2011 Indonesia has also ordered;

8 AH 64D Apache battlefield assault helicopters for $1.4 billion.
42 batteries of a Brazilian made artillery rocket system for $402 million.
36 batteries of French made 155 millimetre self-propelled artillery for $170 million.
100 German made Leopard heavy main battle tanks for $280 million.
1 Dutch made Sigma Class stealth frigate for approx $250 million. 7 more planned.
2 Turkish made Milgem Class stealth frigates for approx $500 million. More planned
3 Korean made Type 209 submarines for $1.1 billion. More planned.
24 F-16 fighter-bombers for $750 million.
6 Russian made SU-30 fighter-bombers for $470 million.
37 Russian made BMP-3 amphibious tanks for $114 million.
24 locally built 40 metre long KCR-40 Class fast missile boats for approx $240 million.
1 factory to manufacture various Chinese designed guided missiles.
1,000 R-Han 122mm rockets, for its locally developed artillery rocket System.
180 Javelin anti-tank missiles for $60 million.

Now the facts are that this is the biggest military build up in Indonesia's history.

What is more important is that the aid programs are being used to offset this Indonesian Defence expenditure by allowing them to deflect items added to the aid program by using the funds provided by Australia and the US to non Defence areas and then taking the funds provided by those aid programs and using them to replace the Indonesian funds and allowing those funds to be redirected to their arms build up while Australia makes its own Defence cuts to balance a budget already top heavy in misspent and incompetent aid programs. AU has paid for at least one third of this expenditure in aid programs.  In return the Indonesians are using the funds also to purchase northern lands in perpetuity for their own domestic consumption of livestock. This is contrary to God's law. We will pay the penalty for this stupidity.

Either the administration are complete idiots or they are misleading the public and cutting AU defence expenditure at a time when it can least afford it and at the same time refusing to properly pay Defence pensions and disability pensions.  The new government has promised to rectify the pension inequities but there is no program and they simply will not advise the timeframes.  However what is more important  is that the wars of the last days are upon us. We are building up the war machines of other nations and reducing our own. Incompetence or treason you determine which it is.  Our aid programs are incompetently conceived and incompetently administered. We hand money to a corrupt UN system within corrupt administrations or in accordance with agendas not in the interests of our people. The entire grain handling system and its storage and disposal in Australia is about to be handed over to a foreign nation's private system.

Remember we warned of the GFC and no one listened.  We warned of the wars from 2001 and no one listened. We warned of the Arab spring and the consequent wars and no one listened.  We warned of the Egyptian Islamist conflicts and no one listened.  We warned of the Middle East expansion from Iraq and into Syria and then the expanding conflict into Iran and Iraq and on into the North and the East and still no one is listening.  The Islamist incursions in Europe will develop and the biochemical Wars of the Fifth Trumpet will follow on into the Thermo-nuclear war of the Sixth Trumpet and still they do not listen.

We are about to experience a financial collapse throughout the US and EU caused by the same shadowy figures behind the GFC and then the wars will escalate.

Remember also that the 40 years allocated to Egypt and Syria and the Middle East for the attempted genocide of Israel in the Yom Kippur war that lasted from Atonement 1973 to May 1974 with the final settlement with Syria is complete by the Second Passover season of 2014.  God will commence to deal with them from that date and the wars will escalate because they will not repent. The Northern forces will then occupy the Middle East for 42 months under this final Empire of the Beast.

Pray we are able to prepare and to survive under the hand of God. Christ will deal with them soon after the Witnesses have stood in Jerusalem for three and a half years as prophesied.

These papers are important to an understanding of what is happening:
The Fall of Egypt (No. 36)
Fall of Egypt Part II: The Wars of the End (No. 36_2)
Signs in the Heavens: Part I (No. 38A)
The Heavenly Signs of the Sixth Seal in Context (No. 38B)
The Witnesses (including the Two Witnesses) (No. 135)
Wars of the Last Days and the Vials of the Wrath of God (No. 141B)
The Last Thirty Years: the Final Struggle (No. 219)
Advent of Messiah: Part I (No. 210A)
Advent of the Messiah: Part II (No. 210B)
War of Hamon-Gog (No. 294)
World War III: Part I The Empire of the Beast (No. 299A)
WWIII Part II: The Whore and the Beast (No. 299B)

We have very little time and these wars will expand as foretold by the prophets. They will attempt peace and disaster will descend upon them. Pray we reach our people and open their eyes in time.

Wade Cox
Coordinator General