Global Warming.

This month on 15 October we received a more accurate and more serious report of the Global Warming influences that we have seen so far this year. On 15 October Bjorn Lomborg published an article regarding the misinformation we are now receiving about Global Warming. The problem seems to be with the journalists themselves and the political opportunists like Al Gore. Things are not only happening and bad, but they are also worse than expected.

He considers that assertion odd, “because any reasonable understanding of how science proceeds would expect that, as we refine our knowledge, we find that things are sometimes worse and sometimes better than we expected, and that the most likely distribution would be about 50-50. Environmental campaigners, however, almost invariably see it as 100-0. If we are regularly being surprised in just one direction, if our models get blindsided by an ever-worsening reality, that does not bode well for our scientific approach.”

He thinks that if the models are constantly getting something wrong it is probbaly because the models are wrong and thus we cannot know what policy action to take if we want to make a difference.

Hence if the new facts show us the consequences of Climate change are getting worse and worse the scientific method could be argued to not carry much weight.

Thus regardless of our failing models we decalre that to be the case without basis and gamble that we must cut CO2 emissions drastically.

However the facts show that “it is simply not correct that climate data are systematically worse than expected; in many respects, they are spot on, or even better than expected. That we hear otherwise is an indication of the media's addiction to worst-case stories, but that makes a poor foundation for smart policies.”

He rightly points out that the planet is heating up. “It has warmed about 1C over the past century and is predicted by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to warm between 1.6C and 3.8C this century, mainly owing to increased CO2.” Or so he says.

“An average of all 38 available standard runs from the IPCC shows that models expect a temperature increase in this decade of about 0.2C.

But this is not at all what we have seen. And this is true for all surface temperature measures and even more so for both satellite measures. Temperatures in this decade have not been worse than expected; in fact, they have not even been increasing. They have actually decreased by between 0.01C and 0.1C a year.

On the most important indicator of global warming, temperature development, we ought to hear that the data are actually much better than expected.”

What we have not been told is that the heat content of the world’s oceans has been dropping for the last four years where we have measurements. It is unclear where the heat should have gone but the result is better than expected.

Arctic sea ice is disappearing faster than expected. However, global warming is only part of the explanation. The Arctic oscillation of wind patterns over the Arctic Ocean is in a state that it does not allow build-up of old ice but immediately flushes most ice into the North Atlantic. This may or may not be associated with Global Warming as the results in the Antarctic are much better than expected in the past year.

IPCC models would expect declining sea ice in both hemispheres. However that is not the case.

He points out that: “Ironically, the Associated Press, along with many other news outlets, told us in 2007 that the ‘Arctic is screaming’ and that the Northwest Passage was open ‘for the first time in recorded history’. Yet the BBC reported in 2000 that the fabled Northwest Passage was already without ice. We also have records from the fifteenth century that the North West Passage was open.

Since 1992 he claims that satellite measurment of the rise in global sea levels have shown a stable increase of 3.2 mm a year which accords with the IPCC projection. Over the last two years they have not increased at all and seem to show a slight drop. So on his figures the rise is only 48 mm over the last 17 years. The observations at Fort Dension however show a greater rise and the East Coast of Australia has risen by up to 30 cms over the last few decades.

He claims that hurricans were claimed by Al Gore to be on the increase but notes that in 2006 they virtually disappeared and in 2007 were less than expected. 2008 saw a greater increase however and he does not mention that fact.

He also makes a telling point. He says, “Gore quoted Massachusetts Institute of Technology hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel to support an alleged scientific consensus that global warming is making hurricanes much more damaging. But Emanuel has published a new study showing that even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries. That conclusion did not get much exposure in the media.”

He says that: “Of course, not all things are less bad than we thought. But one-sided exaggeration is not the way forward. We urgently need balance if we are to make sensible choices.”

Much of our information is being manipulated to keep us in a state of fear and panic in order to manipulate us in our economic and political decision-making.

The global effects of what is now happening to our economy and way of living are not isolated from any one.

The Australian Government has sold the message that the Australian economy is isolated from the impact of the chaos in America and Europe but it depends on the strength of the Asian commodity consumption and we might find that is not as robust as we had hoped.

Certainly the decisions made recently on the basis of the Global Warming propaganda and Australia’s rush to embrace the C02 emissions controls are hasty and are based on an over-emphasised model.

But again it is all part of the Globalist models of the New World Order.

On it goes to the Empire of the Beast.

Wade Cox

Coordinator General